Impact of Rural Population Decline
Populations in rural areas have declined substantially in recent years, and the decline is predicted to continue for some time. The possibility of even more town mergers seems high given this trend. Yet even if for economic efficiency, all unchurched towns’ local governments disappear through mergers, most such areas would continue for decades to exist as relatively self-contained population centers (functioning like a town) that are relationally, psychologically, often geographically, and missiologically distinct.
At least those areas over 7000 population near the time of the mergers (based on 2000 census data), even if they drop to half that number over time, seem likely to continue as relatively functionally self-contained communities in most cases. If so, their physical, relational, and psychological distance from other cities or towns with which they may be officially amalgamated is such that they will remain in need of their own church. And they’d still be large enough in population to sustain a church, once planted.
However, if the population of those towns or villages under 7000 in population in the year 2000 declines in half with time, these villages may find it difficult to continue to function as distinct communities that are functionally self-contained in terms of their routine needs for groceries, basic medical care, and such. Also, such small population centers may be difficult to reach with standard church planting approaches and may be unable to sustain a church long term, even if one were initially planted. The increasing dependence of such smaller villages on outside communities for daily life necessities over time may increase their chances to encounter the gospel outside their home town and lead to gradually loss of psychological distinctness, making them less missiologically distinct as well.
Given all the above factors in light of rural population declines, church planting needs to be focused on the 809 unchurched areas of 7000 to 50,000 population (as of the year 2000) as these clearly need their own church and have a reasonable potential to sustain it after it is planted. In most cases, one outreach-oriented church per town of that size is sufficient. For the unchurched communities under 7000 in population in the year 2000, some kind of ongoing regular outreach providing a sustained gospel presence, perhaps tied into a larger community for which that area increasingly looks to for supplies for daily life, still needs to be started, even if it not a church plant.
In conclusion, while rural populations are continuing to decline, it would be a mistake to think rural Japan will disappear, thus making outreach there no longer necessary. Rather, the outreach needs in rural Japan remain great. About 800 church plants and 1000 other sustained outreaches need to be started for the 1800 total remaining unchurched areas.